Phuket 2026: 13,779 Unsold Units Against the Myth of Scarcity

Phuket is currently sold in two versions. In the first, the island keeps growing, tourist arrivals break records, land is running out and prices only rise. In the second, there are raids, criminal cases, an end to short-term rentals and the collapse of nominee schemes. Both stories end the same way: someone offers you an apartment.

The numbers are calmer. The island is neither closing down nor exploding. It is going through the stage every resort market reaches after a boom: supply has caught up with demand and moved past it, and buyers have started to negotiate.

Here is what has actually changed by 2026, where the data diverges from the marketing, and what a sensible deal looks like today.

Quick Answer

• There is no scarcity. In Q2, secondary-market supply grew by roughly 21%, while registered transactions rose by only 5%. The gap between what is listed and what is bought is about fourfold.

• Market scale: about 24 billion THB in secondary listings and around 176 billion THB of unsold new-build stock, which is 13,779 units. For comparison, in 2024 unsold stock was roughly 10,000 units worth 77 billion THB. A 2026 AREA survey cited by The Phuket News puts the total existing inventory at 90,597 units across 806 projects, valued at 705.1 billion THB, with about 85% sold (76,582 units worth 527.8 billion THB). At current sales rates, the remaining stock would take around 19.2 months to clear if no new supply entered the market.

• The average ticket rises because of leftover stock. The asking price on the secondary market moved from 8.5 to 9.3 million THB, and the average new-build unit is about 12.8 million THB: studios sell fast, expensive large units sit.

• A wave of assignment resales is coming. The peak of investor entry was 2023-2024. Those units are only starting to reach the secondary market, and current statistics do not yet capture them.

• Leasehold is a lease, not ownership. It is governed only by the Civil and Commercial Code. Freehold in a condominium is protected by the Condominium Act, consumer protection rules and a prescribed form of contract.

• Daily rentals in condos did not become illegal in 2026. They were never legal. The law separates residential units (minimum stay of 30 days) from licensed accommodation.

Main Risks and Mistakes

Believing in limited supply. The island is finite, but developers build upward and outward: Bang Tao, Layan, Cherng Talay and Mai Khao are adding thousands of units. Mitigation: do not trust the slogan, count the competing projects within two kilometres of your address.

Buying at peak hype. Projects that were snapped up in a week have mostly held their presale price or slipped below it. Growth came from developers who genuinely discounted for early funding and raised prices in honest steps, usually around 5% per phase, up to 30% over a construction cycle. Mitigation: ask for the price history by phase, not an Excel forecast.

Leasehold sold as ownership. Claims of automatic renewal and a guaranteed 90 years have no basis in Land Department practice: it registers a single 30-year term. There is also a nuance: Thai law limits prepaid rent to one year, while a leasehold buyer pays for three decades upfront. Mitigation: use leasehold only as a 1-3 year instrument when you lack freehold quota, where it does bring a lower transfer tax. It is not a lifetime asset.

A hotel licence on a condominium. One question tests it: which legal entity holds the licence, which buildings and floors does it cover, and can you see the document? According to the provincial administration, the island has about 5,000 accommodation properties and roughly 800 valid licences. Mitigation: any inspection claim lands on the operator, not on the seller's brochure, so verify the licence yourself.

Betting on a quick flip. The market is cash-driven: no mortgage helps the buyer, who pays 100% upfront. Low liquidity is built into a resort market. Mitigation: buy with money you can park, because a forced sale at a discount will erase all projected income.

The 25 sq m studio as a universal asset. It sells fast off-plan and slowly after five years: families need space, and investors move to new projects. Mitigation: favour units with a rare feature such as a view, a good layout or genuine walking distance to the beach.

Grey transfers and nominee structures. Scrutiny is tightening worldwide, and Thailand is no exception. Mitigation: the only durable strategy is a clean, properly documented transfer with the correct payment purpose and the FET form for registering freehold.

FAQ

Are Phuket property prices rising or falling in 2026?

Average asking prices are rising, but this reflects the mix of leftover stock: cheaper units sell, expensive ones accumulate. By project the picture varies from plus 30% over a construction cycle to flat or negative.

Can you really buy resale property 30% below market?

Try finding such a unit in practice. Owners paid cash, the property is rarely their only asset, and it earns rent at least in high season, so forced sales are rare. Real negotiating room is a few percent, sometimes more on large units that have been sitting.

What is safer: freehold or leasehold?

Freehold. It is ownership with several layers of statutory protection. Leasehold is a contractual 30-year lease: it survives the owner's bankruptcy, but renewal and resale are not something to count on.

What is superficies and why is everyone talking about it?

It is a registrable real right over a property for up to 30 years that can be transferred and mortgaged, unlike an ordinary lease. After tighter control of nominee companies, the market began to look at it as a legal alternative for villas.

Can I rent my condo out nightly?

Legally, no, if it is a condominium without accommodation-venue status. The minimum stay is 30 days. A new accommodation law is being prepared with three tiers of oversight: 8 to 30 guests requires notifying the registering authority, and properties above 40 rooms and 150 guests need a full licence.

Does hotel-managed rental deliver the promised 7-10% a year?

The market has almost no public cases with transparent reporting and repeat purchases from the same operator. Ask for occupancy reports covering two or three seasons and the cost structure before signing.

Which area should I buy in?

Start from your use case. For family living, the west and north with schools and hospitals. For rentals, zones with steady demand: Bang Tao, Kamala, Rawai, Nai Harn. Before deciding, spend at least a week in the area and test the road, noise and rush-hour traffic.

Is it still worth entering the Phuket market?

Yes, if the goal is diversification and capital preservation over a 7-10 year horizon and the money is genuinely free. No, if the plan relies on doubling in three years.

What to do now. Build a list of 5-7 comparable properties in your chosen area, compare the price per square metre against finished complexes nearby, and answer honestly why the next buyer will choose your unit. Check the form of ownership at the Land Department, the source of funds and the transfer route, and demand operator documents for any rental income claim. The market is not collapsing and not soaring. It is maturing, and the winner is the one who calculates rather than hurries.

Source: The Phuket News (2026 AREA survey)

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