20 Billion Baht Phuket Expressway: Who Profits from the Land Rush in 2026

The drive from Phuket Airport to Patong covers 48 kilometers. In January, at the peak of high season, a taxi takes two hours to cover it. That single fact, more than any developer's brochure, explains why the Expressway Authority of Thailand (EXAT) has revived a project that has been discussed since 2015.

EXAT intends to raise around 20 billion baht for the first phase of the Phuket expressway. According to the agency, the financing structure should become clear starting in 2027.

For investors, this means one simple thing: land along the future route will be repriced not when construction begins, but when the funding source becomes clear. That is roughly eighteen months from now.

Quick Answer

• EXAT plans to raise around 20 billion baht for the first phase of the Phuket expressway; the exact financing model (bonds, infrastructure fund, state budget, or PPP) should be defined starting in 2027.

• Phase one connects Kathu and Patong via a tunnel under the Nakkerd ridge. The planned length is about 4 km, of which roughly 1.85 km is tunnel. The budget has grown over the years from an estimated 14.7 billion baht (2017 projection) to around 20 billion baht.

• Phase two is the Muang Mai, Ko Kaeo, Kathu corridor, about 30 km (reported elsewhere as 30.62 km with a budget of roughly 46.75 billion baht), linking the island's north and the airport to the central area. It is more expensive and further behind schedule, with the route reportedly part of a transport package under Cabinet review in July 2026.

• A realistic opening date for phase one, even in an optimistic scenario, is no earlier than 2031-2032: after the financing decision, a tender, land expropriation, and 4-5 years of tunnel construction are still required.

• Land reacts to financing news, not to the ribbon-cutting. Historically, in Thai infrastructure projects, the biggest price jump happens between the approval of the financing scheme and the start of construction.

• Foreigners cannot own land outright in Thailand. For a non-resident, participation means a freehold condominium, a leasehold villa, or a stake in a Thai company, each with its own risks.

Key Facts

• 20 billion baht is EXAT's target for phase one financing; full deal parameters are promised after 2026.

• The Kathu-Patong tunnel received initial approval back in the late 2010s but has not reached groundbreaking in nine years; a PPP-model concession tender failed to attract bids on acceptable terms and the project was repeatedly sent back for revision.

• Phuket Airport handled over 16 million passengers in 2024 against a terminal design capacity of about 12.5 million, straining the island's single main artery through Thepkrasattri and the climb to Patong.

• The existing Route 4029 into Patong crosses a mountain pass with gradients of up to 15% and is considered one of the island's most accident-prone stretches.

• The Phuket Light Rail project is effectively frozen, leaving the expressway as the island's only major transport project with an active budget line.

• Market estimates put the price gap between Kathu and Thalang land at roughly threefold today, with development plots in Kathu trading noticeably higher than comparable acreage in the northern Thalang districts that phase two will serve.

• Phuket's residential property market has been valued at over 705 billion baht, the highest among Thailand's regional provinces, with foreign buyers, including those from China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, Western Europe, the Middle East and India, driving the majority of demand.

Why nine years of promises have not produced a tunnel

This is the key fact to keep in mind before running any yield calculations. The Kathu-Patong tunnel has been under discussion longer than half the projects in Bang Tao and Layan have taken to be built, sold, and resold.

The reason is straightforward. A public-private partnership model for a four-kilometer stretch with a tunnel does not pencil out economically: toll revenue from a single direction, busy only six months of the year, is not enough to repay construction through mountain rock. A private concessionaire wants minimum-revenue guarantees, and the state is unwilling to provide them. Hence the pivot toward EXAT raising the funds directly.

That is why the phrase 'the scheme will become clear starting in 2027' matters more than the headline figure. Twenty billion baht is just a budget line. The real trigger for the land market is the answer to who provides that money and at what expected return.

Where land prices will actually move

The geography of the winners does not match intuition. Patong, against expectations, stands to gain the least: there is almost no free land left there, and prices have long since hit the ceiling of what buyers can pay.

Three zones will capture most of the upside:

• Kathu, the district near the tunnel's eastern portal. Today it's a compromise for those who want Patong without paying Patong prices. Once the route opens, the commute shrinks from 40-50 minutes in high season to just a few minutes, turning Kathu into a resort suburb.

• Ko Kaeo and the east coast, the junction point of the future phases, close to hospitals, international schools and the road to Phuket Town. Active mid-segment development is already underway here.

• Thalang and Muang Mai, the most speculative play. Cheap land, weak infrastructure, and dependence on phase two. It could multiply in value, or it could sit idle for fifteen years if phase two is delayed the way phase one was.

Our view: buying now makes more sense in Kathu and Ko Kaeo than in Thalang. Phase one is at least funded at the level of stated intent, phase two is not. That distinction is the difference between an investment and a lottery ticket.

One caveat where none of this applies: if your budget is below 8-10 million baht, the infrastructure play isn't for you. At that level you won't be buying land (and as a foreigner you couldn't own it outright anyway), you'll be buying a studio whose returns depend on tourist arrivals and the management company, not on where the highway runs. In that case, focus on occupancy rates and rental yield, not kilometers of asphalt.

What not to do

The most common mistake is buying a plot 'near the future interchange' through a Thai company set up for a single deal. Foreigners cannot register land ownership on Phuket, and a nominee-shareholder structure directly conflicts with the Foreign Business Act. Land Department scrutiny on the island has grown noticeably stricter in recent years.

The second mistake is timeline mismatch. A 30-year leasehold bought in 2026 expires around the same time the road reaches its design capacity. An asset that appreciates near the end of a lease term benefits the landlord, not the leaseholder.

Third, construction itself depresses value in the short term. Four to five years of noise, dust and blocked access near the Kathu portal is a period when rental rates there will dip, not rise.

What to watch before 2027

Watch two things: the Cabinet's decision on the financing source, and the start of land expropriation for the right-of-way. Once expropriation maps are published, it's too late to negotiate.

If you're seriously considering a purchase along the corridor, go see it yourself, and do it in January or February rather than the off-season. The traffic jam climbing into Patong at peak season explains the project's economics better than any report.

FAQ

When will the Phuket expressway actually open?

Assuming the financing scheme is approved in 2027, with tendering and land acquisition taking one to two years and tunnel construction around five years, a realistic target for phase one is 2032-2033. Any promise of 'three years from now' contradicts the project's own history.

How much will land along the route appreciate?

No one can give an exact figure. Based on other Thai infrastructure projects (Bangkok expressway extensions, MRT lines), plots within 1-2 km of interchanges have historically gained tens of percent in value within two to three years of financing approval. The key word is 'after approval', not after opening.

Can a foreigner buy land on Phuket to capture this growth?

No, non-residents cannot register land ownership. Legal routes are a freehold condominium within the 49% foreign quota, a 30-year leasehold with renewal options, or a stake in a Thai company conducting genuine business activity.

Is Kathu or Patong the better bet?

Kathu. In Patong, the road's benefit is already partly priced in, and there is almost no free land for new projects. Kathu captures the biggest gain in commute time and still has room to build.

Should I wait until 2027 or buy now?

If the property is attractive on its own merits (rental yield, location, price), buy now and treat the infrastructure as a bonus. If the road is the only reason for buying, you're paying for news that has already failed to materialize twice before.

Does this affect condo prices too, or just land?

Land reacts more strongly. Condominiums respond more slowly and modestly, since their pricing is driven mainly by rental income and management brand. The exception is projects within 300-500 meters of future access points, which developers will start marketing at a 'connectivity premium' as soon as the financing decision lands.

What happens if the financing doesn't come together?

It's a real possibility: the project has already collapsed twice in nine years. In that scenario, Patong stays stuck with Route 4029, and speculative land buyers in Thalang hold an asset with no delivery date.

Are there alternative transport projects on Phuket?

The light rail is effectively frozen, airport expansion is lagging behind passenger growth, and a second airport in Phang Nga province is under discussion. The expressway remains the only project today with a concrete budget figure and a named implementing agency.

Our concrete recommendation: don't buy land speculating on the road, buy a finished asset in Kathu or Ko Kaeo with solid rental yield today, and treat EXAT's eventual financing decision as a free option on future value. That way you earn a return regardless of whether the project ever leaves the paperwork stage.

Source: Phuket PRO

Ready to invest in Thailand? Our experts will help you find the perfect property.